An overview of Super Tuesday Republican primary preview focusing on Trump's possible victories in various states and Haley's uphill battle in possibly suspending her campaign. Analysts predict a Trump versus Biden rematch in the general election.
Voters in 15 U.S. states are gearing up to cast their ballots on Tuesday in the Republican presidential primary, as Donald Trump aims for significant victories that could potentially sway Nikki Haley to suspend her bid for the party’s nomination.
Trump has already secured wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Haley's home state of South Carolina, prompting speculations about Haley halting her campaign post-Super Tuesday contests. In fact, Haley mentioned on March 5 that it's as far as she has thought about going forward.
Polls focused on Super Tuesday states show Trump with substantial leads over Haley, including a 77-point advantage in Oklahoma and a 75-point margin in Alabama. Furthermore, Trump is far ahead with leads of 50 points or more in California, Maine, Minnesota, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.
While Trump's lead is commanding in many states, some areas show a closer race. Massachusetts sees a 29-point lead in polls, Utah reflects a 27-point edge, and Vermont shows a 30-point advantage for Trump.
Massachusetts and Vermont have reputations for favoring moderate Republicans. Both states operate open primaries, allowing independents to cast their votes. Independents, who have shown a preference for Haley over Trump, have the potential to influence the outcome. For example, polling indicates that Haley wins 82% of independents in Vermont. However, independents represent only about 24% of the voting pool in the GOP primary.
Vermont, much like New Hampshire where Trump won with 54% of the vote against Haley's 43%, is seen as a battleground state. Despite some challenges, Haley's campaign officials see a glimmer of hope in Vermont. This is evident by Haley's decision to campaign there in person on Sunday, as pointed out by Matthew Dickinson, a professor of political science at Vermont’s Middlebury College.
Utah, home to the headquarters of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, also known as the Mormon Church, holds promise for Haley despite Trump's historical challenges in the state. In the 2016 GOP caucuses, Trump finished third, trailing behind Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
According to American Enterprise Institute pollster Daniel A. Cox, Trump's demeanor and values may not resonate with Latter-day Saint voters who prioritize humility, modesty, and frugality, along with cultural pluralism and political tolerance. Yet, despite these differences, Trump's support in LDS enclaves has shown a significant increase from 2016 to 2020.
Aside from Utah, other states participating in Super Tuesday include Alaska, Arkansas, and Colorado. Additionally, American Samoa will also hold its primary on this day. Polling data for these states is relatively limited compared to more prominent primaries.
Forecasters and betting markets have placed Haley's chances of becoming the GOP nominee around 6%. However, many analysts have already shifted focus towards a potential Trump versus Biden rematch in the upcoming general election.
Analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics remarked on the lack of competition in this year's presidential nominating season. Both Biden and Trump have emerged victorious in every contest thus far, highlighting the increasingly predictable nature of the race.
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